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Trading

Positive Economy Growth For Late 2009 Predicted by Trading Floor Expert

Trading Floor columnist and Saxo Bank chief economist David Karsbol says the American economy will return to positive GDP growth in the second half of 2009; however, the reliance of the recovery on government spending and inventory re-stocking may mean the growth is not sustainable.

Karsbol says consumer deleveraging will continue and demand will remain subdued. US unemployment will continue to rise over the coming months, further hindering debt repayments and consumption.

Saxo Bank’s fourth quarterly financial outlook for 2009 is available for download on the Trading Floor site, which has been running since May 2009. Trading Floor gives daily and quarterly outlook and trading analysis of Forex, Equities, FX options, CFD trading, and commodities.

The Saxo Bank quarterly report is put together by the bank’s strategy team of chief economist David Karsbol, chief equity strategist Christian Blaabjerg, consulting FX strategist John Hardy and market strategist Mads Koefoed.

The quarterly outlook predicts that monetary stimuli and government deficits are likely to continue, leading to a ‘Japanisation’ of financial markets – higher price-to-earnings ratios and lower yields on both corporate bonds and treasuries.

Karsbol added: “Because Western economies are more flexible and able to embrace the necessary changes, we do not think that things will get as bad as was the case in Japan.

“However, it is increasingly evident that the current scenario in the West bears a close resemblance to post-1990 Japan, and it looks progressively like we have entered a new regime in which everyone assumes that large companies will be bailed out. This means that default risk is ‘priced out’, and we see higher price-to-earnings ratios and lower yields on fixed income.”

With maximum stimulus in the rear view mirror and austerity and exit strategies increasingly on the menu, Forex trading as a whole may begin to shift away from the rosier recovery projection that is already priced in. This could likely mean the exhaustion of many of the trends that are currently in place in FX, where so many trades are aligned along the ubiquitous risk appetite axis.

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The Japanization of Financial Markets

Saxo Bank predicts that monetary stimuli and government deficits are likely to continue, fostering a “Japanization” of financial markets, whereby the market will see higher price-to-earnings ratios and lower yields on both corporate bonds and treasuries.

Chief Economist at SaxoBank, David Karsbøl, commented: “Because Western economies are more flexible and able to embrace the necessary changes, we do not think that things will get as bad as was the case in Japan. However, it is increasingly evident that the current scenario in the West bears a close resemblance to post-1990 Japan, and it looks progressively like we have entered a new regime in which everyone assumes that large companies will be bailed out. This means that default risk is ‘priced out’, and we see higher price-to-earnings ratios and lower yields on fixed income.”

In its fourth quarter outlook, the Copenhagen-based investment specialist predicts that the American economy will return to positive GDP growth in the second half of the year, but warns that the sustainability of this growth is questionable and will be largely due to government spending and inventory restocking. US unemployment will continue to rise over the coming months, and that this will further hinder debt repayments and consumption.

David Karsbol believes a USD short seems to be a vote for the global recovery and has become the, newer and better carry trade. “The very low US’s yields and need for external financing and increasing reluctance from China to buy greenbacks is a toxic cocktail that could drive the currency even weaker in the near term,” Karsbol said.

Looking towards the end of the year, market dynamics indicate a shift from this year’s equity market rally. Global equity markets rallied 59% from the March lows through to August, and looking ahead, dynamics indicate a shift in performance towards micro trends and sector-specific growth and valuation stories.

Karsbol added: “Most indicators of economic activity are stabilising, but at very depressed levels. We believe investors should continue to take cyclical risk through regional allocations, with particular emphasis on emerging markets over Europe and the US, where it will be difficult to maintain and improve growth.”

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Saxo Bank, The Online Specialist In Trading And Investment, Maintains Profitability In First Half Of 2009

Saxo Bank, the online specialist in trading and investment, has reported its half year results showing that clients’ collateral deposits and assets under management in total exceeded DKK 25 billion and, in a very difficult year, profit before tax reached DKK 55 million.

Saxo Bank, The Online Specialist In Trading And Investment, Maintains Profitability In First Half Of 2009

Operating costs increased primarily due to new office openings, product launches, as well as contributions to the Danish State Guarantee Scheme and with unchanged income, profit before tax declined from the same period in 2008.

– Pre-tax profits of DKK 55 million (DKK 162 million).
– Operating income of DKK 969 million (DKK 969 million).
– EBITDA of DKK 128 million (DKK 221 million).
– Clients’ collateral deposits increased to more than DKK 11 billion (DKK 8 billion).
– Assets under management in the Asset Management department exceeded DKK 14 billion (DKK 0).
– The solvency ratio for Saxo Bank Group was 18.9% (10.1%).

In a joint statement, Saxo Bank co-CEOs and co-founders, Kim Fournais and Lars Seier Christensen, commented: “We did expect 2009 to be a difficult year. However, the results reassure us that we took the right decision when we chose to steer the Bank into a new phase based on a more flexible structure before the financial crisis took hold. We also find it encouraging that the Bank managed to strengthen and optimise its entire value chain, product offering and geographical footprint during what were six very challenging months for the financial markets as a whole. And, equally importantly is of course, that our new Asset Management department got off to a good start with DKK 14 billion in assets under management, a number that since has grown to DKK 16 billion”.

During the first half of 2009, Saxo Bank introduced a number of enhancements to its award-winning online trading platform, the most significant of which were related to Commodity CFD’s and FX options. In addition to a broader product offering, the Bank widened its geographical footprint and established its presence in Milan, Madrid and Prague, and acquired two Dutch broker houses and a Tokyo-based provider of FX services. In May, Saxo Bank became the first Danish bank to receive regulatory approval to operate a regional office in the Dubai International Financial Centre.

About Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank is an online trading and investment specialist, enabling Forex Trading for clients, CFDs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives, as well as providing portfolio management via SaxoWebTrader and SaxoTrader, the leading online trading platforms.

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St Peter Port Capital Limited, An AIM Listed Investment Company Announces Its Preliminary Results For Its Second Year Of Investment

St Peter Port Capital Limited (the “Company” or “St Peter Port”), the AIM listed investment company whose aim is to generate value by investing predominantly in growth companies shortly before an initial public offering (“IPO”) or other exit event, announces its preliminary results for its second year of investment..

St Peter Port Capital Limited

Highlights

• 36 investee companies at year end

• realised to date, £22.5m in cash f r o m investee companies, generating a gain on investment of 39%

• following the year end, a further £5.67m invested in five companies, two of which are new to the portfolio

• NAV of 105.6p per share, up 3.1% over the year

• profit of £877,000 (2008: £3.69m), eps of 1.2p (2008: 4.9p)

Bob Morton, Chairman of St Peter Port, said:
“I am pleased to report that the Company has weathered the storm and maintained the net a s s e t value of the portfolio. We believe that many of the companies within the portfolio have considerable upside potential in a portfolio of high risk/high reward companies.”

Tim Childs, Chief Executive of St Peter Port Investment Management Limited, said:
“As at the 14 July 2009, we had £16.6m to invest in new opportunities and follow-on investments. Competition is limited and we are therefore being offered these on attractive terms.”

St Peter Port Capital Limited floated on AIM on 16 April 2007, raising £75m in new equity. The Company is a Guernsey registered closed-ended investment company. The Company’s objective is to achieve returns f r o m the uplift on or shortly after IPO, but the exit f r o m the investment could also be a trade sale. The universe for investment is principally companies across a broad range of sectors and geography expecting to conduct an IPO or achieve a trade sale or other liquidity event in the months after the Company’s investment. However, in current conditions, it may also include companies which are already public whose value is not properly recognised by stock markets. The initial focus is on companies targeting UK, US and Commonwealth stock markets although pre-IPO companies looking to float on other exchanges will also be considered. The Company appointed St Peter Port Investment Management Limited, a joint venture between Broughton Investments Group Limited (“Broughton”), a company in which Tim Childs is interested, and Shore Capital Limited (“Shore Capital”), the absolute return fund management specialist which currently manages approximately £1.4 billion, to act as its investment manager (“the Investment Manager”).

Learn more about Shore Capital :
Google: Shore Capital share price info –
Linkedin:Shore Capital information –
FT: Shore Capital Profile –
Puma Hotels:Shore Capital

Chairman’s Statement

Introduction

Although our second year of investment was a year of unprecedented difficulty for financial markets around the world, I am pleased to report that the Company has weathered this storm well. It has maintained the net a s s e t value of its portfolio which includes a number of companies with considerable upside potential.

Investment Environment and Portfolio Composition

St Peter Port was relatively fully invested at the start of 2008/9, having invested most of the funds raised at flotation in the previous year. A number of companies in which we had invested were coming to market shortly or otherwise close to a liquidity event such as a trade sale. The portfolio accumulated in the first year was weighted its towards three sectors: oil and gas exploration and production; mining and resources and renewable energy/clean technology, reflecting suitable opportunities which had been identified for St Peter Port’s strategy. At the start of 2008/9 St Peter Port held stakes in 41 companies.

During the earlier part of 2008/9, commodity prices remained high, giving rise to a number of flotations and other exit opportunities. Wherever possible, as described in the report below, the Investment Manager took full advantage of these to release cash. Over the same period the Company redeemed nearly all its hedge fund holdings other than one much reduced holding in a third party fund of funds which has staged redemption arrangements. However, after the banking crisis became extreme in September 2008 the opportunities for achieving exits vanished and only began tentatively to return since the year end.

Given the extent of the turmoil in financial markets, and its impact on the global economy, the Company refrained f r o m making any further investments in the second half of 2008/9. This reflected the conditions for a number of months in which markets – were unable to find any sort of equilibrium.

Investments and Realisations during the Year

During the first half of 2008/9, the Company invested a further £14.9m in nine companies, two of the investments being follow-ons. The focus of these investments shifted f r o m a possible exit through flotation to investments where there was a credible expectation of a liquidity event in any form within a relatively short period, such as a trade sale or repayment of a loan.

To date the Company has realised over £22.5 million through disposals (over £22 million in 2008/9), generating a gain on investment of 39 per cent. This was largely derived f r o m six investments which were wholly or substantially realised during the year and one other which was partially realised.

Share Buy-Back

Shortly before the year end the Company bought back 1.95m of its own shares at 30p per share. These shares are currently being held in treasury. As discussed below, the effect of this buy-back was to enhance net a s s e t value per share.

Basis of Valuation for Financial Results

Determining the Company’s financial results for the year is an exercise largely dependent on an assessment of the fair value of each investment held. Where investments are now quoted, there is an external basis for determining fair value and we have valued holdings at the bid price of the shares. Where this is not available IFRS rules require us to select a fair value.

Values of our oil and gas and resource stocks are influenced by a number of factors, including company progress, exchange rates and commodity prices. Where we have invested in a mining or petroleum project, when the company receives positive results f r o m drilling geological investigation this should lead to a rise in value. We report in sterling but many of our investments were made in foreign currency. Even where this was not the case, the value of the investment is frequently determined by reference to dollar values rather than sterling. We have also taken account of any pre-defined uplift on a liquidity event; in some cases we have written investments down heavily and in others written them up.

Financial Results

The Company made a profit in the year of £877,000 (2007/8: £3.69m), generating earnings per share of 1.2p (2007/8: 4.9p). Income arose largely f r o m the net gains in fair value of investments of £2.51m (2007/8: £4.57m).

Net a s s e t s at year end were largely unchanged f r o m the previous year at £77.13m (31 March 2008: £76.84m). However, net a s s e t value per share increased by 3.1 per cent to 105.58p (31 March 2008: 102.45p), largely as a result of the share buy-back.

Balance Sheet

As at 31 March 2009, the Company held £54.3m in investments in companies, being equity investments and loan instruments (31 March 2008: £55.9m). Nearly all of the remaining balance sheet was in cash, £22.6m (31 March 2008: £12.5m – including commercial paper), the principal difference being that £8.7m was held in hedge funds at 31 March 2008, which was reduced to £130,000 at the year end.

Activity since the Year End

Since the year end conditions have become more stable and the Company has resumed making new investments, described below in the Investment Manager’s report. Three of these investments are follow-ons into companies in which we were already shareholders and the other two are new investments. The pricing of each of these reflects the depressed market conditions which currently prevail and offer the prospects of significant uplifts on exit.

As a result of these investments since the year end, the Company, as at the 14 July 2009, held £16.6m in cash and available for investment. We therefore have the cash to cherry pick f r o m the best of our existing portfolio and new opportunities at a time when many potential participants are illiquid.

The investment climate has become less volatile and commodity prices have recovered substantially since their lows around the turn of 2008. Competition in our area f r o m other funders is limited. We believe that many of the companies within the portfolio have considerable upside potential in a portfolio of high risk/high reward companies. The Board views the future with confidence.

Bob Morton
Chairman

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Trading Floor To Open Up Trading Information For Forex And Equities

Saxo Bank, the online trading and investment specialist, is addressing the problem of market information overload with its TradeMaker module to complement its trading platforms, as well as a new Trading floor website.

Trading Floor

The information barriers of the past that limited trading to professional traders with a Bloomberg or a Reuter’s screen have long gone. The quantity of trading information and Forex news available to all types of traders on a home or business PC has increased to such an extent that now it is possible to trade not only stocks, but also Forex and more exotic instruments such as Futures and CFDs.

But while speed is vital when making trading decisions, speed without solid strategic insight won’t bring any advantages. The main problem is that as the cost of information has fallen, the volume has increased accordingly. Trying to find a way through this jungle of FX crosses, quotes and trades is sometimes a challenge even for the most experienced trader.

TradeMaker is a real-time trading idea generator that is part of Saxo Bank’s award winning trading platforms. It provides ten daily intra-day trading ideas on major currency crosses and CFDs including intuitive charts and interface, as well as one click pre-populated trade tickets or the ability to tailor the idea to personal trading strategies.

“Using the information and services provided by TradeMaker, we hope to be encouraging those traders that are looking to enter the market but need more direction,” said Patrick Mortensen, Global Head of Partner Marketing at Saxo Bank.

“We have already received feedback that tells us users actually feel more secure in their trading decisions, as TradeMaker enables them to better identify and manage the risks involved in the market,” said Patrick Mortensen.

The advent of the electronic trading platform has brought an end to the ‘open outcry’ of busy, noisy trading floors. As traders have retreated behind desks and screens, the shouting, signaling and pulling faces have disappeared. And with it has gone some of the human interaction that helped inform the markets.

Trading Floor is an attempt by Saxo Bank to bring some of that noise back by getting the markets rubbing shoulders, dealing – and shouting. Trading Floor provides up to date, forex news and market place analysis.

The aim of the new Tradingfloor site is to bring market participants together through the web site. Saxo Bank provides the web site and the expertise of its strategists and analysts and those of its partners.

The Daily Trading Stance is the mainstay of Tradingfloor’s daily offering. It is the position that Saxo bank’s own strategists distribute to traders with a rundown of the main themes of the day in FX, equities, futures, and FX options.

The commentary is prepared by Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist David Karsbøl and Saxo Bank’s Equity Strategist Christian Tegllund Blaabjerg, with additional advice from Forex expert John hardy, who was named as one of the most influential people in Forex in 2008. Commodities expertise is provided by Ole S Hansen and Alan Plaughmann. Tradingfloor.com also has its own YouTube Trading Floor channel which is updated daily with the day’s trading information and delivered by David or Christian.

The speed of trading has picked up tremendously in recent years with the use of automated and semi-automated systems. But the systems are only as good as the information they receive. The key to success in online trading is to find reliable sources of solid tradable information.

About Trading Floor:
Trading Floor is run by Saxo Bank – a global investment bank specialising in online trading and investment across the international financial markets. Trading Floor provides up to date forex news and market place analysis.

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Daniel Nole Was Appointed Chief Operating Officer At Xasax

Xasax Corporation is challenging the boundaries and integration of network infrastructure and systems technologies through its leading edge Xasax Financial Backbone. Built on Dark Fiber routes and a la carte trading services, Xasax is exceeding customer expectations. In keeping with this mantra, Daniel Nole was appointed Chief Operating Officer. His mandate, to guide the process and spearhead operations in providing this ultra low latency solution to the markets.

“Xasax is pleased to have an experienced top tier player on our team. Dan’s level of expertise and industry knowledge is certainly in keeping with the Xasax gold standard of quality and service. He plays a significant role in our overall planning and execution. The entire Xasax team is excited to have him,” said Noah Lieske, Xasax Chief Executive Officer and Founder.

Mr. Nole remarked, “The Xasax Offering is unlike any other on the street today. Low latency has a new meaning and definition under the Xasax model; speed to market, scalability, customizability, and flexibility are the hallmarks of this next generation solution. I am pleased to be a part of this tradition of excellence and look forward to assisting Xasax in the expansion of its global reach.”

Mr. Noles’ prior appointments include COO at NYFIX Millennium, Portware, and FTEN. Mr. Nole leverages his grass roots beginnings in financial audit at Ernst & Young, as well as his trading and operations expertise on the Floor of the Boston Stock Exchange. Dan brings a unique blend and wealth of knowledge from leading financial technology companies to Xasax.

About Xasax:
Xasax Corporation provides an ultra-low latency financial network called the Xasax Financial Backbone built by lighting diverse dark fiber paths. The XFB encompasses the majority of available liquidity in the US with dark fiber interconnections. Xasax services include proximity hosting / co-location; raw and consolidated market data; order routing and execution management systems; Vendor of Record/entitlement solutions, and historical data warehousing. This infrastructure facilitates high-frequency traders, hedge funds, and financial service providers.

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eToros groundbreaking visual software presents a new approach to forex trading

Once in a while, a product comes along and revolutionizes a whole industry. This has been the case with the unique eToro forex trading platform. Due to its incredible appeal, in just one year eToro has drawn in thousands of people of all ages, from all over the world. From Canada to China, from Spain to Australia, people who have never considered trading forex before – have discovered the wonders of the Forex world with eToro.

eToro utilizes an innovative visual interface (a registered patent!) that simplifies forex trading and makes trading user-friendly for traders of all levels of experience. eToros trading arenas use visualizations that enable traders to trade forex intuitively, for example by trading on an animated world map. By using visual trade representations, eToro makes the complex forex market understandable even to first time traders.

Furthermore, eToro has drawn in countless experienced traders who have opted to switch trading platform in order to benefit from eToros user-friendly interface and superb trade execution. eToros Expert Mode allows seasoned traders to focus solely on trading, with all the features a professional trader needs, combined in one all encompassing trading screen that also provides forex news and calendar.

One of the unique characteristics of eToro is its emphasis on community which includes chats, forums and contests. Furthermore, eToros community can help the trader make his trading decisions with a tool called Top Traders Insight, which lets traders see the most popular trades of eToros 100 top profiting traders. This tool provides traders with a fantastic opportunity to use the expertise of the pros instead of doing their own market analysis.

David Morgan, from the UK, is an example of eToros traders: “I never traded forex before because all other trading platforms are complicated to understand and to use,” he says. “I started trading with eToro with just $50, and found the unique visual interface of eToro to be very friendly and educational, and within a short time, I became a professional forex trader.”

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M&S Money reports sales of Dubai currency hit record levels as the QE22 prepares to leave the UK for the final time

As the QE2 leaves the UK for the final time before becoming a floating hotel in Dubai, figures from foreign currency expert M&S Money suggest that the region continues to be a popular winter destination for Brits.

Last month saw the highest ever amount of sales of foreign currency for Dubai, with more than

£1million worth of UAE Dirham (AED) being sold through the network of M&S bureaux de change, as well as on the phone and internet.

October’s record figure has contributed to a 15% year-on-year increase in sales of the UAE Dirham – the currency used in the seven states which form the United Arab Emirates.

Dubai and the other UAE states have grown in popularity as a destination for Brits in recent years, whether on holiday, for business or visiting friends and family.

Hotels in Dubai have reported growing visitor numbers this year. According to the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing there was a 22 per cent growth in hotel revenues during the first three months of 2008, compared to the corresponding quarter last year.

The Queen Elizabeth 2 (QE2) cruise liner is the longest-serving ship in the 168-year history of the Cunard line and is currently owned by Carnival, the world’s largest cruise operator.

Having now left Southampton for the last time she will arrive in Dubai later this month, where she will undergo extensive refurbishment to become a floating hotel.

Fraser Millar, M&S Money Head of Travel Services, said: “Our travel money sales figures show that the UAE Dirham is one of the most popular currencies outside the Euro and US Dollar.

“October and November are usually the peak months for sales of the Dirham as people prepare to head-off for some winter sun. The high sales figures of last month may indicate that those who are travelling to the region are taking more cash as a result of the increased cost of living in Dubai. Travellers should bear this in mind when deciding how much currency to purchase before travelling.”

According to www.dubaifaqs.com, visitors can expect to pay around:

  • Hotel room (per night): £50
  • Small car rental (per day): £17
  • Petrol (per gallon): £1.05
  • Beer (pint): £5
  • House wine: £30
  • Bottle of water (1.5 litre): 40p
  • Burger: £2.40
  • Foreign newspaper: £3

Brits spend on average £821 per visit to the UAE, or £76 per day (Figures from the

Office for National Statistics Travel Trends 2006).

 

About M&S Money

M&S Money (originally called Marks & Spencer Financial Services) was founded in 1985 as the financial services division of Marks and Spencer Group plc. The company is now a top-ten credit card provider and the second-largest travel money retailer in the UK. M&S Money also offers travel insurance as well as providing insurance for homes, cars, travel, pets and weddings, along with loans, savings and investments.

In November 2004, Marks & Spencer sold M&S Money to HSBC, one of the world’s largest banking and financial services organisations with over 9,500 offices in 76 countries and territories. The business continues to operate under the M&S Money brand, with an executive committee comprising an equal number of representatives from HSBC and Marks & Spencer.

The company employs 1,200 staff at its headquarters in Chester, delivering personal financial services to its customers, reflecting the core values of Marks & Spencer — quality, value, service, innovation and trust.

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Crisis period has become a trial for most financial companies, and also their clients. North-West Financial Broker Company offers the best conditions on forex market to their clients

NWFBroker offers the best conditions on forex market for clients during the financial crisis period.

There is every-day quotes delivery to the terminal, which allows trades to be well informed about current situation on financial markets every single moment. In addition, the Company charges 11% of annual to a free deposit, which is also a certain bonus for the Company’s clients. Lowest deposit is 100$. They offer over 500 tools for work.

The Company always improves the quality of the services they offer in order to make trade operations keeping easier. The clients have a possibility to get an interest free credit for transactions. Trader can get the needed information by means of sms at any time even without being near a trade terminal. Newswire of high quality from the leading global agencies, access to the most topical news, and also direct analytical support will facilitate the work on financial markets.

 

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