Tag Archives: Forex videos

Saxo Bank Releases New Asia Focus Video

Saxo Bank, the online trading specialist, has released a new Asia Focus Video which features Andrew Robinson, Forex Analyst for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, analysing the People’s Bank of China’s decision to lower its reserve requirement ratio, whether it’s a taste of more cuts to come and how much it is a clear signal that the world’s second-largest economy is really slowing after all.

The unexpected People’s Bank of China’s announcement that it will lower its reserve requirement ratio on December 5, representing the first cut in three years, initially surprised markets and started a risk-on sentiment, particularly in equities and incited market hunger for more monetary easing.

As such, reserve requirement ratio cuts rarely come in isolation and more are likely soon, probably as early as next month, confirmed Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets. He said the timing of this easing has to do with the flow of data of late which has pointed to a slowing in the economy and that it was acknowledgement of this situation. Furthermore it pre-empted the latest purchasing manager index data which confirmed a contraction scenario for the economy.

Commenting on the recent data from China, Andrew said: “Last month’s data was looking particularly soft and the expectations for this month are not particularly encouraging. If we look at the data that’s been coming out recently, it’s certainly suggesting that the market is slowing down.

“I think this is a pre-emptive move by the PBOC and they’re looking to continue it and build the economy.”

The focus in the coming days will now shift to inflation data with more declines in the consumer price index and an even greater drop in the purchasing prices index seen. Combined, this confirmation of a softening in price pressure effectively removes a hurdle the People’s Bank of China was facing in terms of the freedom to continue to ease monetary policy.

The video can be viewed at http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/macro-ad-hoc/more-chinese-easing-as-price-pressure-abates-removing-pboc-hurdle-1126984016, with many other forex videos available on the Saxo Bank site.

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Saxo Bank Releases New Video Commenting On Eurozone Crisis

Saxo Bank has released a macro view video featuring Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, analysing the situation for the Eurozone in light of heads rolling in the hot political seats of troubled nations, namely Greece and Italy. It goes without saying that despite the impending appointment of new heads of state the burdens in these nations are so heavy now that they can hardly be shrugged off.

Clean-up in both countries is a major task. While Greece is in the bailout phase and is undergoing a leadership change, the main focus is on Italy now which still has a chance to save itself. And it must as there is hardly a hand large enough to help the Eurozone’s third-largest economy. With the situation worsening by the hour though and the markets having clearly demonstrated a looming doomsday, with perilously high bond yield spreads, prompt action must be taken.

The problem in Italy is one of liquidity not solvency, unlike Greece, though it seems the difference hardly matters now in the eyes of investors. It is interesting to note that it only took Portugal, Greece and Ireland 14 days to ask the International Monetary Fund for help after their 10-year bond yield spread to German bunds passed 6.5 per cent, said Steen. Italy’s has been above 7 per cent for a few days now. So the pressure is definitely on Italy’s politicians in charge – whoever they might be – to activate reforms, move through austerity and create a credible plan. Until then the EURUSD is expected to remain under considerable pressure.

The full video, as well as other forex videos, can be found at video.saxobank.com.

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Saxo Bank Releases New Asian Focus Video

Saxo Bank has released new Asian Focus video featuring Andrew Robinson, correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets, analysing the effect of the Bank of Japan’s latest yen intervention and the sustainability of further actions before year end. He also commented on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut rates, the first flow of PMI data in Asia and the noise surrounding the Chinese leader’s visit to Europe this week.

Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi put his money where his mouth was with unilateral intervention to weaken the yen. This is the third intervention this year with estimates suggesting it is the largest one of the three. So far it has had the intended effect with the USDJPY holding at around the 78.0 level. History however shows that it could be a longer term struggle to keep it there as after the previous two interventions this year it took only about five days for the rate to drop back to pre-intervention levels. Concerning other action it is unlikely the Bank of Japan will instigate other measures like a trading floor for the pair, similar to the Swiss National Bank’s action, Andrew said.

The timing of the intervention ahead of the Group of 20 leaders initially took the market by surprise but in hindsight as Finance Minister Azumi had in recent weeks spoken almost daily about the problem of the strong yen it was ultimately only a matter of time before the Bank of Japan took action.

Meanwhile the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the official interest rate by 25 basis points for the first time since April 2009. Whether this is the beginning of a whole series of cuts or just a one-of is another story though and will depend largely on the development of the local economy and the degree of uncertainty globally. How effective the passing on of the cut by commercial banks to consumers will be on their spending behaviour will also remain to be seen.

Monthly Purchasing Managers Index data in the Asian region paints a mixed picture about the health of the manufacturing sectors with most attention on China and somewhat different stories being told by the official Chinese data and private sector equivalent report.

China is also drawing attention from its leader Hu Jintao’s visit to Europe during the lead up to the G-20 summit. Expectations are increasing that China will commit to supporting the European Financial Stability Facility but any announcement is hardly likely to occur before the G-20 meeting.

Further information and additional forex videos can be found at videos.saxobank.com.

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Saxo Bank Releases New Video Commenting On Eurozone Meetings And Greek Referendum

Saxo Bank has released a new macro view video featuring Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank, taking a look at the expectations for three key meetings this week: the Federal Open Market Committee, the European Central Bank and the Group of 20 leaders. He also addresses the implications of Greece’s surprise referendum on its aid package and austerity programme.

Jakobsen commented that the G-20 meeting (November 3-4) needs to deliver actions rather than more supportive talk for the troubled Eurozone. Focus will be on the announcement of concrete financial measures of commitment via the International Monetary Fund in order to appease the prevailing uncertainty.

This uncertainty was exacerbated by Greece’s call for a referendum on its new aid package and austerity measures, thereby possibly threatening European leaders’ attempts last week to secure the Eurozone’s future.

Prior to G-20 the Federal Open Market Committee meets. Despite a spate of moderately encouraging US data of late the committee is expected to merely confirm a supportive wait and see approach and possibly only allude to a third round of Quantitative Easing.

The European Central Bank meeting, also this week, which is the first to be chaired by the new President Mario Draghi will be interesting to watch to see if he already now cuts rates and thereby reverses the apparent error of his predecessor.

Jakobsen commented that being Italian and with much focus on his troubled homeland, there is an expectation that Draghi will be even tougher on ensuring that Italy shapes up, particularly considering a disappointing bond auction last week which indicates the increasing problem Italy has in financing its debt.

The full video, as well as other forex videos, can be found at video.saxobank.com.

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ForexTrading.net Releases New Videographic on the Forex Market

ForexTrading.net, a new online forex magazine is aiming to keep users updated with all the latest happenings in the world of forex trading, through a videographic that has been published on the site.

The new videographic will give users of the site an overview of the forex trading market, and can even be embedded into users’ personal websites or blogs where it can be shared with other interested internet users.

Recent years have seen a number of changes in the forex trading market; not only has the number of people who trade in this manner shot up, but the way in which trading occurs is constantly evolving as well. For instance, in 2010 alone, cross-border trading transactions constituted 65% of trading activity. This implies the power of technology and its effects on the forex market.There has also been a rapidly growing disparity in algorithmic trading versus manual trading. In 2004, algorithmic trading only ranked at 2% of all trades, however in 2010 it comprised 45% of the trading share. Similarly the global foreign exchange market turnover was 20% higher in April 2010 than in 2007, with average daily turnover of 4 trillion USD compared to 3.3 trillion USD. As such, it’s very important for forex traders and internet users who follow the market to keep updated, and ForexTrading.net videographics will allow users to learn about forex in a manner that’s informative yet fun, and share their findings as well.

Nanna Arnadottir, editor at ForexTrading.net said: “The forex trading industry has some great news and commentary sites, but it can be a bit starved of interesting blogs with real quality content. That’s what we’re aiming for with ForexTrading.net, that and a bit of personality, which I think the videographic really provides.

It’s a fun way to take in a lot of facts and you can share it or post it on your own blog, so everyone is a winner.”

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TradingFloor.com Releases New Video Commenting On Eurozone Crisis

TradingFloor.com has released a new video featuring Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, warning that solutions to the Eurozone debt problems need to be found before the Cannes G-20 Summit in November.

The new video highlights the sense of urgency for a solution to Eurozone problems, which has increased with market reaction clearly indicating intolerance with the current pace of progress, especially of late concerning the ratification of the 21 July changes to the European Financial Stability Facility and a solution for Greece.

Jakobsen mentions that there are some significant steps to take these days like key Eurozone member votes on EFSF ratification. Despite previously strong opposition to further rescue measures for troubled Eurozone members, anything but ratification is unlikely, says Steen. The Slovenian and German parliament has already given its thumbs up with Finland and Austria expected to follow suit by the end of the week. Though once approved by all member states this supposed knight in shining armour will not be able to ride easily to the rescue of failing nations. Unanimous (not majority) votes are required for decisions – like expansions of the facility – to be passed.

Meanwhile, talk about the concept of a European Investment Bank leveraging on the EFSF to ring-fence European banks from any fallout from the EU debt crisis, is hardly seen as a band aid but rather a ploy which will hardly solve anything, according to Steen.

Steen likens Greece’s attempts at new austerity packages as an attempt to save the troubled nation at the goal line. With 99 per cent probability of default then talk of saving Greece is actually quite comical, he says. Meanwhile, austerity fatigue is apparent as evidenced by more strikes across Athens. Ultimately Greece needs debt forgiveness and a clean slate but a free-ticket to safety would hardly go down well with other troubled Eurozone nations. Nevertheless, Greece has become kind of a scapegoat due to increased talk of contagion (which is not an economic concept but rather a policymakers’ excuse for not doing what needs to be done domestically). Contagion or not, it doesn’t change the fact that there is no way out for Greece other than default, concluded Steen.

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TradingFloor.com Releases Video On The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting

TradingFloor.com, the home of Saxo Bank’s trading commentary, financial research and analysis, has released a video discussing the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOCM).

With the deterioration in the US economic outlook being further cemented by recent disappointing macro data, there is now mounting expectation that the Federal Reserve will once again come to the rescue and kick-start the world’s largest economy. Therefore, all eyes are set to be on the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting and what will or won’t be decided in terms on new monetary stimulus.

The latest FOCM meeting has been extended to a two day meeting to allow for further discussions. The last meeting saw an extension of low rates until 2013, and Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, believes that the next step will be an Operation Twist Light.

Back in the 60s, The Operation Twist, meant that people sold short term bonds and bought long term bonds, which was seen as a twist, hence the name. This time this will not be possible, because the rates have already been lowered. This means only the long end part of the equation will be executed, with long term bonds being bought. However, Steen doesn’t think this will be a lot for the market in the long term.

This alone is not going to be enough to turn it around. Steen believes that the market always likes to be promised something new, which means President Obama will need to balance the delivery of the Operation Twist Light and throw in something new as well.

Steen also comments that the situation in Europe will have an effect on the timing of any announcements from the US. While it is clear that the US realise the situation in Europe is not good for the US, Steen believes that the Federal Reserve will ultimately do what is the best for the US.

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TradingFloor.com Releases Video on Meeting of Global Central Bankers

TradingFloor.com, the home of Saxo Bank’s trading commentary, financial research and analysis, has released a video discussing the important meeting of a number of global central bankers at Jackson Hole in the U.S.

The state of the economy and the more active role of central banks to help rectify this means that investors are keenly interested in the fact that a number of global central bankers are meeting in Jackson Hole. There is also a lot of interest in what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will or won’t say when he addresses the meeting in a press conference.

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist, Saxo Bank, discusses his views on the market expectations and what the likely outcome of this meeting will be in TradingFloor.com’s latest video ‘Constructive Jackson Hole solution or more of the same?’

Last year, during the same meeting in a mountainside retreat, Ben Bernanke surprised everyone by announcing a second round of Quantitative Easing. With concerns about a double dip recession rising, people are expecting a big announcement this time around too. Steen Jakobsen believes that the main objective of Bernanke’s press conference will be to avoid “Japanisation”, which is a deflationary environment with low growth and low interest rates through more of the same monetary policy.

Recent data also suggests that the U.S. economy is going to need some sort of help in the form on intervention in the fourth quarter. Steen believes that even though quarter two was a failure, Bernanke will continue to defend the easing concept, despite his reputation is on the line. Bernanke is expected to claim that without the easing concept, the situation would have probably ended up being much worse.

A press conference by Jean-Claude Trichet the European Central Bank President, will follow that of Bernanke. He is also expected to defend the bank’s previous actions in raising rates, despite receiving heavy criticism that this was out of sync with the rest of Europe.

Steen states that the hope is that Trichet will now come up with some real solutions for the Eurozone’s economic problems. This should hopefully mean the Eurozone will lean more towards solidarity and consolidation, thus getting rid of the pointless political battles which have been making the problems worse.

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TradingFloor.com Releases Video On The Swiss Franc Dilemma

TradingFloor.com, the home of Saxo Bank’s trading commentary, financial research and analysis, has released a video discussing the current dilemma involving the Swiss Franc.

The Swiss Franc has appreciated of late, and therefore so has the focus of what the Swiss Bank and the Swiss government will do to curb this strength, as it is hurting businesses and therefore the Swiss economy.

One of the steps which have been discussed the most is a peg to the Euro; however this is yet to happen, despite much speculation. With the attempts to weaken the currency’s strength possibly only providing temporary relief, it is seen as only a matter of time before more extreme measures, such as a peg to the Euro, are taken.

Ken Veksler, senior manager, Trading Advisory at Saxo Bank discusses his opinions on the likelihood of a peg to the Euro and the effect the Swiss Franc dilemma is having on the Swiss economy.

Veksler believes that a peg to the Euro is an extreme measure, and the likelihood of that happening is fairly minimal. There was a successful attempt made in 1978, where the Swiss Franc was pegged to the German Deutschmark for around 18 months, however, Veksler thinks it will be unlikely that this extreme measure will be taken again, even though the scare in the market in recent days and weeks has made it more of a serious topic than previously thought.

The Swiss government would be unhappy to put a peg to the Euro in place because it would mean a loss of its position as an independent state within a wider UN zone, which they have prided themselves on for quite some time.

Veksler believes that if the peg did come into place the Swiss Bank would have to revert to printing money to allow themselves adequate reserves to put this sort of action into place. However, this is more of a band aid for the problem rather than a full term solution.

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TradingFloor.com Releases Video on Margin Pressure

TradingFloor.com, the home of Saxo Bank’s trading commentary, financial research and analysis, has released a video discussing the first quarter earnings wrap and specifically what happened to margin pressure.

It seems margin pressure hardly emerged and that its effects (on the back of higher commodities), especially for consumer driven companies, will instead first kick in later in the year. The underlying momentum for stocks remains strong. Pro-cyclical companies, in particular, posted good results largely driven by emerging markets), and this was confirmed in their earnings outlooks for more growth ahead – which is good news for stocks and the overall economy. Peter Garny, equity strategist for Saxo Bank discusses these issues in TradingFloor.com’s latest video.

With the larger companies in the S&P 500 in mind Peter discusses how many investors at the beginning of the earnings season were talking about a margin squeeze. In actual fact margins have actually expanded slightly in April, as well as year on year. So, margin pressure is by and large not evident yet, and the only disappointment lay on the top line in terms of revenue, which has slowed down somewhat. However, Peter is hopeful that this will grow again as the economy continues to grow throughout the year.

Peter then tackles how companies have dealt with the pressure of rising input costs. He commented that many of the large companies still have tight controls in place, meaning they have managed to keep their operating costs low. Most companies are also operating with long term contracts, which mean that rising spot prices in commodities are yet to kick in.

To finish, Peter talks about how large shipping companies and steel makers have recently reported better than expected earnings and growth, and what can be deduced from this in terms of economic growth. The numbers from these big procyclical companies, combined with the better than expected GDP numbers from the Eurozone show that the underlying momentum in the economy and on the corporate side is strong. However, as there is no great pick up in either Europe or the U.S., the emerging markets are clearly driving these numbers. This is a good sign for economic recovery, because when big companies affirm their outlooks for 2011, it generally means it should be a good year for stocks.

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Saxo Bank Video Looks at Post-quake Japanese Investment Opportunities

Saxo Bank has released a new Equity Focus video featuring the company’s Equity Strategist Peter Garnry. The video looks at what the possible implications for investors interested in the Japanese stock market are in the short and long-term, with the total impact and cost of the massive earthquake in Japan, related tsunamis and nuclear crisis still unclear. The Bank of Japan has introduced a series of policy easing measures but there is still doubt that this will be enough to create market stability in the Japanese stock market.

Comparing Japan’s current situation to the state of the country’s market following the huge earthquake which occurred in the city of Kobe in 1995, Peter Garnry commented that the stock market remained steady in the days following that disaster but people underestimated its effects and within four months the market had fallen by 25%. When asked whether this was due to the Kobe earthquake hitting a large industrial area of Japan rather than the coastal areas devastated by the recent quake (although some car manufacturing and electronics plants were forced to stop production) Garnry replied that the effect on the market will only be known in the coming months. He also stated that the aftermath of the earthquake could be a great opportunity for many investors to be exposed to Japanese stocks and subsequently invest in them.

With the current disaster coming on top of an already exorbitant national debt status there are increased concerns that the Japanese economy could be pushed back into recession. Meanwhile, major Japanese exporters are being hurt by forced shutdowns due to power shortages, while the yen, at least for now, is supported by the Bank of Japan’s massive liquidity injection into the banking system. As it’s still early days there’s a chance that just a few months down the road the impact on Japan’s economy and currency might be somewhat different and this could result in some interesting investment opportunities in large Japanese export driven stocks.

About Saxo Bank:
Saxo Bank is an online trading and investment specialist, enabling clients to trade Forex, CFDs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives, as well as providing portfolio management via SaxoWebTrader and SaxoTrader, the leading online forex trading platforms. The three specialised and fully integrated trading platforms; the browser-based SaxoWebTrader, the downloadable SaxoTrader and the SaxoMobileTrader application are available in over 20 languages. The Saxo Bank website features a wealth of investment advice, trading products, market news and analysis, including forex videos.

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TradingFloor.com Releases Video On European Growth

TradingFloor.com, the home of Saxo Bank’s trading commentary, financial research and analysis, has released a video discussing the current European growth.

The European growth situation is particularly in focus, with quite a bit of key macro data being published which is expected to confirm the ‘growth story’. In the video Mads Koefoed, macro strategist at Saxo Bank’s TradingFloor.com discusses the growth in Europe and in the U.S.

Mads first discusses Eurozone industrial production in addition to the Eurozone and some individual members’ GDP reports. The industrial production numbers of -0.1% were a little below consensus expectations but above TradingFloor.com’s expectations of -0.4%. Even though the numbers had declined, the manufacturing sector is still growing strongly in the Eurozone. The declining numbers are thought to be attributed to the very strong November numbers, which saw industrial production rising 1.4% month on month, so some give back is it to be expected in December’s numbers. The very poor weather in December will also have had some affect on production numbers. Mads expects the numbers to improve for January.

The overall GDP reports were also fairly good and what was expected. Countries like Spain performed better than expected with a result of 2% up. With Germany continuing to drive the Eurozone, Mads predicts a fairly robust growth in the Eurozone in the fourth quarter.

Furthermore, also in focus is a meeting of Europe’s Finance Ministers and any indications of increasing the debt stability of southern Eurozone members. While Mads does not foresee much news coming out of the event, he does foresee them discussing the Germany and France proposal to put in place a measure against debt increase to hopefully ensure a more harmonized corporate tax system in the Eurozone, despite other leaders not being completely behind this.

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