Category Archives: Commodities

Business Monitor International Analyses Russia’s Record-Breaking Year Of Oil Production

Business Monitor International (BMI) has published its latest Russia Oil & Gas Report, which highlights the record-breaking year of oil production. Following a post-Soviet oil output high of 10.3mn barrels per day (b/d) in September 2011, Russia maintained its position ahead of Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer. Although oil production has risen rapidly in recent years, BMI evaluates whether Russia will be able to surpass the 11mn b/d mark any time soon.

According to BMI, Russia will remain the world’s largest gas exporter for the foreseeable future, but an increasing share of production will have to come from outside the country’s traditional gas heartland of West Siberia, with output from new fields offsetting declining volumes from existing areas.

The report provides key forecasts and in-depth analysis of the Russia oil and gas market including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends, prospects and projects, oil and gas infrastructure and changes in the regulatory environment. It also features a competitive landscape of the oil and gas sector focusing on key national and multinational companies in Russia.

Although Russia will continue to dominate oil supply in the region, backed by huge and under-exploited reserves, BMI expects Caspian states to increase their contribution significantly. The acceleration of new production capacity offshore Azerbaijan and, especially, Kazakhstan will cement the region’s importance to efforts to expand global oil output to meet rising demand from Emerging States.

BMI’s portfolio of products and services provides comprehensive analysis of the global oil and gas industry and enables industry professionals, strategists, sector analysts and investors to identify key market opportunities and avoid market risks wherever they operate.

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Gold Can Help You Overcome Financial Problems

Items made from gold and other precious metals such as silver and platinum could be some of the most valuable resources you have in these troubled financial times. Unlike stocks, bonds, mutual funds, 401Ks, real estate and other collectibles these items are actually gaining in value while everything else seems to be in decline.

Prices are Better than Ever

Gold is increasing in price both as a commodity and as a raw material for jewelry and other uses. In fact the demand for gold as a raw material is higher than ever so a wide variety of companies are paying more for it than ever before. This why it is now very easy to sell gold in Oceanside, NY, the buyers know that they can get a good price for it so they will purchase it.

This means that a person should be able to sell any sort of gold that he or she has in his or her home including scrap gold, bars, coins, jewelry, broken jewelry, chains, antiques and collectibles. It also means that it is now possible to sell even lower grade gold such as 10 karat items for a good price.

It is also easier than ever to sell gold long distance. There are several companies including Gold Cash that now pay a very high price for items sent in.

The higher prices also mean that it is easier than ever to pawn gold . Pawnbrokers are willing to loan more on it because the amount of the pawn loan is usually 60% of the item’s value. If the item is worth more you will receive more when you pawn it.

Anybody who is facing any sort of financial difficulty should check his or her home or safety deposit box for items made of precious metals like gold. This can include a wide variety of items including antiques, collectibles, coins and watchcases. Items that contain diamonds will be worth more than plain jewelry.

If you are unsure whether an item is made of gold bring it in or send it in. The professionals at companies like the Gold Standard will be happy to examine it free of charge and tell you what you have. That way you can put a little extra cash in your pocket or your bank account.

Remember you run now risk when you visit a pawnbroker or gold buyer they will keep your visit confidential and they might be able to help you with the extra funds that you need. We all know that extra money will come in handy these days.

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Demand for Gold and Gold Jewelry Constantly Increasing

The demand for gold and gold jewelry is constantly increasing and that’s good news for average Americans who need extra cash. The reason it is good news for average people is that it means it will be easier than ever to sell gold in Oakland Gardens.

Even though the demand for investment or commodity gold and gold investments such as exchange traded funds is down the demand, for jewelry gold keeps increasing. It is really strong because people in India and China are buying more gold than ever. Much of the jewelry sold here is smelted down and sent over there. That’s good news for you because gold buyers can now afford to pay a better price than ever before.

Although the price of gold in the newspaper is falling, the price in your neighborhood could still be going up. The buyers still want to buy your jewelry and they’re willing to pay good price for it. New stores are opening all over the New York area and the mail-in buyers are paying more than ever before.

This means that now is a great time to clean out your jewelry box, safe or safety deposit box. Why keep paying to store what you don’t want when you could sell it for cash?

The huge demand for this metal means that buyers are willing to purchase items they would not have looked at just a few years ago. They are willing to buy scrap gold, gold dust, broken jewelry, chains, even old watchcases. Any item you have that you think might be made of gold, silver or platinum could be worth money. They are also willing to purchase lower karat gold including items that are 10 karats or less.

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Business Monitor International Warns Of China’s Economic Slowdown

Business Monitor International (BMI) has released the latest special report, “China 2012: From Miracle To Meltdown” outlining a case for a severe growth collapse in China driven by declining money supply growth rate, accelerating inflation and external slowdown with a threat of a double dip recession in the US.

According to BMI, the bearish outlook for China’s economy is more credible now than at any point in recent history. With China’s housing market exhibiting characteristics typically seen at the end of a bubble, a steep drop in house prices as developers offload inventory would pose a risk of a cash crunch to businesses operating in China, especially property developers and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). As the repayment capacity of loans given to local government investment vehicles increasingly comes under threat, BMI also expects a pronounced correction in investment spending and instability in China’s banking sector.

From banking sector exposure and weak fiscal and monetary position, the report also focuses on China’s consumer market and its ability to shoulder the burden of growth should Chinese export growth fall due to a weakening US dollar and lower import demand from the US and Europe.

Moreover “China 2012: From Miracle to Meltdown” assesses the impact of a Chinese hard landing on the regional economy. While no country would be immune from a Chinese hard landing, BMI argues that Australia is most precariously positioned to suffer the consequences of this severe economic slowdown. A Chinese hard landing would push the Australian economy over the edge, likely ushering in a recession and potentially triggering a financial crisis.

Given the importance of China to the global economy, the report enables global investors, strategists and decision-makers across the corporate spectrum to identify business growth opportunities, avoid market risks and aid strategic planning activities over the short, medium and long term.

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How To Sell Gold In Floral Park

Now is the best time to sell your gold since the prices are at a record high. Because of the high prices of gold today, there is also an increase in the number of gold buyers. Also contributing to the increase in number of gold buyers is the fact that it is easy to join the business these days. With the proper licenses, you can just set up show anywhere you like. You only need to have a license as a pawn broker or as a second-hand dealer to get started in the business.

But while it’s a good time to sell your gold – be it jewelry pieces or coins – there are gold buyers out there who are only out to make fast and easy money on you. Gold is an expensive item, and people will do anything to have a piece of it. Many gold buyers don’t have your interest in their mind. If you want to sell gold in Floral Park, be sure you know where the legitimate gold traders are.

The gold buy-and-sell business is simple and quick. Just go there and sell your piece of gold, get paid and leave. But that’s only when you don’t aim for the highest value for your gold piece. If you want best possible selling price of your gold, invest time and effort, don’t allow yourself to be taken for a ride.

One golden piece of advice you should heed is to avoid falling for infomercials that promise to make it easier for you. A tragic mistake many people make is to believe in these infomercials as if they are gospel truths and deal his gold without research into the prevailing prices of gold.

In fact, a piece of jewelry oftentimes carries a value higher than its gold content. A 100-year-old watch, for example, can guarantee you a price that is much higher than its gold content.

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Business Monitor International Launches A Brand New Nordics Power Report

Business Monitor International (BMI) has introduced to its portfolio a brand new Nordics Power Report, covering Denmark, Finland and Sweden. This addition adds depth to BMI’s global power market views, and its analysis of the European power sector.

The Nordic countries covered in the report are mature electricity markets and, according to BMI’s forecasts, they will experience modest growth both in terms of generation and capacity over the forecast period (2011-2015). Considering that electricity demand is forecast to see only limited growth between now and 2020, the main priority for Denmark, Finland and Sweden is to replace ageing plants with additional cleaner generation capacity.

The Report provides key forecasts and in-depth analysis of the Nordic power market, including electricity generation, consumption, trade, power generation costs and transmission. The industry forecasts for gas, coal, oil, nuclear, hydro and renewable are supported by BMI assumptions and analysis of key risks to BMI core scenario. Within this, the report analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent industry developments and the background macroeconomic outlook. It also features a competitive landscape of the Nordic power markets comparing multinational and national operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Electricity consumption and generation in Denmark, Finland and Sweden is expected to grow only moderately in the coming years. However, weak demographic dynamics and slow economic recovery as the result of government programmes are expected to impact power markets across Europe. BMI holds a similar outlook for Central and Eastern Europe with the exception of the Turkey power sector, which we expect to exhibit strong growth, driven by a sharp rise in its power consumption over the coming years.

BMI’s portfolio of products and services provides comprehensive analysis of the global power industry and enables industry professionals, strategists, sector analysts and equity investors to identify key market opportunities and avoid market risks wherever they operate.

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Business Monitor International Releases The Latest Analysis Of China’s Mining Industry

Business Monitor International (BMI) has published its latest China Mining Report, which forecasts annual average industry growth of 9.1% in real terms from 2011 to 2015, with production of bauxite, copper, tin and gold set to rise fastest. By the end of this period, the value of China’s mining industry will reach US$606bn. Industry-wide energy efficiency and consolidation measures introduced by the government as part of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) will be the key drivers of growth.

BMI expects the industry to see further consolidation as government involvement increases, resulting in the closure of underperforming smaller mines and pressure on the country’s largest operations to improve efficiency and boost productivity.

The Report provides key forecasts and in-depth analysis of China’s mining industry, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments, expansion plans and significant changes in the regulatory environment. Moreover, it features BMI’s mining and commodity forecasts to end-2015 for metals, minerals and gems.

China, India and Australia have become global leaders in gold, lead, zinc, bauxite and iron ore production over the last decade, strengthening Asia’s position as a dominant global mining player. That said, BMI forecasts Indonesia to become increasingly important a regional hub for mining production as domestic companies develop the country’s mining reserves. Indonesia’s mining industry is set for rapid growth as the country continues to attract investment in coal, nickel and tin sectors.

BMI’s portfolio of products and services provides comprehensive analysis of the global mining industry and enables industry professionals, strategists, sector analysts, investors and commodity traders to identify key market opportunities and avoid market risks wherever they operate.

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Business Monitor International report highlights the risks of a double-dip recession

Business Monitor International (BMI) has released its latest special report, “Market Meltdown: Global Economy On The Edge” evaluating the major risks to the world economy arising from the recent slump in global stock prices and rise in vulnerable government bond yields.

With the Eurozone affected by the on-going sovereign debt crises, the US faced with debt concerns after losing its AAA credit rating, and Japan still suffering from the consequences of March’s earthquake, the global economy is threatened by a risk of another recession.

On August 5 2011, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating for the United States to AA+ from AAA, while maintaining a negative outlook. Prior to S&P’s announcement, poor Q211 GDP data and revisions to the GDP series going back to 2010 had a significant impact on the US economic outlook. The report focuses on the recent market developments, outlines revisions to BMI’s US growth forecasts and provides insight into the US ratings downgrade. Furthermore it examines a possibility of a double-dip recession in the US.

BMI also analyses the implications of the Eurozone debt crisis for European politics, financial market strategies and the European banking sector. Considering market scepticism over the sustainability of the Eurozone, the current crises represent the biggest test for European institutions since the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, and one with far graver economic implications.

Moreover, “Market Meltdown: Global Economy On The Edge” assesses the contagion risks of the eurozone and US crises for Asia; from banking sector exposure, the stress on states with weak fiscal positions, and the impact on China’s economy and the rest of the region should global trade flows be disrupted by a weakening US dollar, or lower import demand from the US and Europe.

BMI’s unique combination of global macro-economic forecasting, industry knowledge and long track-record of emerging markets forecasting enables global investors, strategists and decision-makers across the corporate spectrum to identify key market opportunities and avoid market risks wherever they operate.

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Business Monitor International Releases the Latest Analysis of Japan’s Post-Crisis Economy

Business Monitor International (BMI) has released its latest special report, “Japan After The Quake: Resurgence Or Another Lost Decade?” examining the state of Japan’s economy and exploring the risks and potential areas of outperformance across six industries covering retail, agribusiness, IT, automotives, commercial banking and power.

The report outlines BMI’s views on Japan’s recovery and the future prospects of the Japanese economy, focusing on the longer-term implications of the disaster.

While it has been encouraging how quickly the economic downturn has stabilised, Japanese consumers are unlikely to start spending again soon. BMI expects that the Japanese consumer to place a greater emphasis on price over quality. The reconstruction efforts will divert capital resources away from other sectors of the economy, and a slowdown in China will impact the export sector.

Further, the March earthquake and tsunami has had a major impact on Japan’s ICT and retail industries, with the ICT sector struggling especially to resume full operations on the back of supply chain disruptions and power shortages. Faced with a precarious domestic outlook, ICT firms will, instead, turn to growing emerging market demand to boost their revenues, a strategy that is also being pursued by the Japan autos sector with varying success.

That said, other sectors are better poised to capitalise on the “back-to-basics” spending of consumers with major convenience store retailers outperforming in this challenging environment. While March’s retail sales growth fell to its worst level since 1998, retail sales in recent months have bounced back, underlining a recovering demand outlook for Japanese retailers.

More broadly, the longer-term economic outlook remains fraught with risk, with Japan staring at another lost decade of economic stagnation. Indeed, BMI predicts that consensus expectations for Japan’s GDP growth of 2.9% in 2012 are too optimistic.

BMI’s portfolio of products provides comprehensive analysis across Japan’s industries and enables global investors, strategists and decision-makers across the corporate spectrum to assess and evaluate how far Japan has come since the crisis in terms of economic stabilisation and industry consolidation.

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Business Monitor International Predicts Slower Growth In The Angola Construction Industry

Business Monitor International (BMI) forecasts an annual average growth of 8.3% y-o-y between 2011 and 2015 in the construction sector, which will be slightly reduced from the previous high rate.

Angola has experienced a post-civil war reconstruction boom, aided by the spending of oil revenues and large credit lines. The infrastructure sector benefited from the rapid pace of growth in the construction industry. Although sky-high property prices and vast oil wealth have seen the Angolan capital Luanda dubbed the “new Dubai”, new data for Angola’s construction industry illustrates downside risks that expect to slow the future growth of the infrastructure market.

The Angola Infrastructure Report provides an overview of all the major areas of the infrastructure sector including building materials, transport infrastructure, construction industry and utilities. It also features BMI’s market assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2015 covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development.

BMI previously highlighted the pertinent threats posed by political risk across a number of African nations. The violent unrest and political instability seen in Libya and Cote d’Ivoire has underlined the importance of policy continuity for investment into the Africa infrastructure markets.

BMI’s portfolio of products and services provides comprehensive analysis of the global infrastructure industry and enables industry professionals, strategists, sector analysts and investors to evaluate and manage the risks arising in the infrastructure markets.

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MLDEX Market Development Training Program

The Market Development Training Program hosted by the Headquarters of the MLDEX, was held in Melbourne, Australia in the week of 12-19 June 2011.

This program was designed as a forum for the exchange of best practices in the development and regulation of capital markets presented through a series of lectures, roundtables and case studies. Senior experts from different International Regulatory Agencies and the Capital Markets Board (CMB), as well as speakers from the region shared their insights on capital market development, enforcement, and examination of market participants. The Program also explored responses to crises and market abuses, provided observations comparing and contrasting approaches by regulatory systems around the world, and highlighted international best practices.

The presenters used real-world examples of market abuse and inefficiencies to explore the regulatory, statutory, and other tools that capital market regulators need to address.

Besides CMB representatives, many international exchange representatives and market professionals attended the event that was also sponsored by MLDEX.

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New Management Board Members of Melbourne Derivatives Exchange(MLDEX) Want to Establish Investment Culture in Australia

Australia does not have a traditional investment culture – neither for capital management, or financing nor for building retirement provisions by investing. More intense information activities, additional services and stepped up efforts to improve the tax framework will help to bring about a change in the coming years, was the message of the management team of Melbourne Derivatives Exchange, underlined by Henry Petterson, the President of MLDEX.

“In the future, we want to provide more trading services. To establish a culture of saving and investing more firmly in Australia – only a small percentage of monetary assets are invested in derivatives and investment funds, while the Asia Pacific Rim average is almost twice as the Australian one. Melbourne Derivatives Exchange would like to see more of an attractive framework for the tax advantages of investment participation schemes. A survey conducted by MLDEX among the leading 20 funds listed on the prime market in Australia revealed the need of individual investors and self-traders to participate with a bigger share in the market flow. The fund directors interviewed spoke out in favor of doubling the tax-exempt amount and a shortening of the holding period.

The goal of establishing an investment culture in Australia also requires the efforts of domestic investment banks. “At present, only one-sixth of the entire Australian fund volume is invested in close ended funds. We therefore appeal to Australian investment management companies to invest more in close ended funds,” said Petterson.

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Melbourne Derivatives Exchange launches new index: CDEX

Melbourne Derivatives Exchange launched the CDEX. The index is weighted according to certain fundamental ratios and made up derivatives in the Australian Trading Index, the leading index of Melbourne Derivatives Exchange.

In contrast to the Australian Trading Index, the weighting of the commodities in the CDEX is not based on market fluctuation, but rather on a factors computed by the Melbourne Derivatives Exchange taking into account fundamental ratios: supply and demand on the medium to long term, net growth and market exposure to other factors. The CDEX is calculated and published in AUD in real time. It has been designed as a tradable index that can be used as an underlying for structured products and standardized derivatives. The calculation parameters are reviewed on a quarterly basis and the index composition is checked, and if necessary adjusted, analogously to the Australian Trading Index in January and June of each year.

With the launch of the CDEX, the Melbourne Derivatives Exchange has once again shown its internationally recognized competence in the area of indices and its skill in responding to market demands. With the CDEX, the range of index products now comprises a total of 36 indices, with 12 of them tracking national, regional or sector-related developments in the Asia Pacific region. Meanwhile, the majority of all structured products with a reference to Asia Pacific are based on the indices produced by the Melbourne Derivatives Exchange.

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Business Monitor International Release Latest Report On The Greek Infrastructure

Business Monitor International has announced the release of its newest report, which examines the state of the industry infrastructure in Greece.

This is currently a turbulent time for Greece’s economy, as there have been protests about tax rises, job losses and a number of strikes at power plants. The impact of fluctuations in the infrastructure market is likely to be felt in Greece’s construction industry which is currently struggling to cope with reduced demand for its services.

Business Monitor International’s report covers all the major areas of the infrastructure sector including transportation, energy and utilities; analysis of the latest industry trends and prospects; and competitive intelligence on leading construction companies. It also features BMI’s market assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2015 covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on multinational and national contractors and suppliers.

BMI’s previous outlook for the Greek energy and utilities market predicted that the market was in decline and would continue to decline. The Greek parliament is due to vote on the government’s latest round of spending cuts and tax rises. Spending cuts are likely to hit the infrastructure industry hard as the industry is reliant on growth and investment which is likely to be reduced as part of the proposed spending cuts.

The Infrastructure report enables industry professionals, strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies to evaluate and better manage the risks, and exploit business opportunities, in global infrastructure markets. BMI’s analysis of the situation and forecasts for the future offer insight for those looking to manage risks or considering investment.

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Business Monitor International Releases Report On Russian Food And Drink Market

Business Monitor International has released its latest report examining the state of the food and drink market in Russia.

BMI provides reports covering various sectors and geographic locations, and key food and beverage trends. This report is its latest signification product release for Q3 2011.

The BMI reports on food industry trends are designed to enable manufacturers and suppliers, grocery retailers, consultants, policy makers and regulatory organisations to identify international growth opportunities, evaluate risks and opportunities in global food, drink and retail markets.

According to this latest report, Russian food prices which have seen some easing in recent months, may be about to start rising as the recent ban on grain exports, which was put in place to keep domestic food prices down following droughts, gets lifted.

The report concentrates on industry-specific regulatory environment and highlights recent issues with fruit and vegetable imports from the EU, which have also provided a temporary boost for the Russian domestic fruit and vegetables industry.

The Russia Food and Drink Report also analyses the implications of the latest industry and macroeconomic developments like the effect of the import ban imposed by the Russian government following the E.coli outbreak in Germany which resulted in 38 deaths and affected thousands of people. Russia’s food safety watchdog is currently analysing the issue to determine what additional measures it should take to guarantee the safety of products imported to Russia from the EU.

As the key to ensuring effective business management is to be able to manage risk and exploit the available business opportunities, BMI believes that the information in this report will prove to be an invaluable aid to a wide range of global industry professionals working in the Russian food and drink market.

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Business Monitor International Reveals Report On Dry-Bulk Shipping Sector

Business Monitor International has announced the launch of its special report on the dry-bulk shipping sector called ‘Dry-Bulk Shipping in Troubled Waters as Glut of Vessels Soaks up Demand’.

The shipping industry analysis report provides an in-depth overview of the challenges that the global dry-bulk shipping sector faces in 2011, with a particular focus on the sector’s ability to tackle its current overcapacity crisis.

The dry-bulk shipping sector’s woes are expected to continue for some time to come, as dropping rate have already lead to Korea Line Corp filing for receivership, and there could be more victims if lines do not reduce capacity.

BMI’s special report on the global dry-bulk shipping industry provides industry professionals with independent analysis into the sector. The report assists in identifying the opportunities and threats to businesses, whether they are a dry ship operator/owner, a dry-bulk terminal operator, a shipyard, a commodity producer/importer/exporter, a logistic firm, a consultancy or an investment bank with an interest in the sector.

BMI believes that despite growing imports of dry-bulk commodities, supply will continue to outbalance demand in the dry-bulk sector for some time to come. BMI expects overcapacity to remain the major concern for the dry-bulk sector over the medium term.

In supply terms, the outlook for dry-bulk is positive. In terms of commodities markets, Brazil and Australia continue to dominate the iron ore production, while global production of grains is expected to increase around 4% year-on-year (in particular, US corn, South American soya bean, Australian barley).

However – despite growing imports, supply will continue to outbalance demand. Global dry-bulk capacity will expand 14% this year, far outpacing a 6% rise in demand, China COSCO, China’s largest shipping conglomerate, has said.

The current global dry-bulk fleet stands at 7,957 vessels, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. There are 2,749 vessels on order, up 2,466 y-o-y, representing 34.5% of the current fleet. Of these, 1,555, about 20% of the current fleet, are due online in 2011. Given the current supply demand imbalance, this orderbook is certainly a cause for concern.

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Business Monitor International Launches Latest Report in India

Business Monitor International (BMI) has announced the launch of its latest report on India’s Information Technology industry.

The report includes BMI’s market assessment and independent 5 forecast to end 2015, covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions.

The India analysis report also analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing multinational and national IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.

BMI’s India Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in India. The report is vital for all these groups to benchmark BMI’s independent 5-year IT industry forecasts to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the India IT market. It is also vital because it allows them to target business opportunities and risks in India’s IT sector through reviews of latest Information Technology trends regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in India. Finally, it allows these groups to assess the activities, strategy and market position of competitors, partners and clients via Company Profiles, including KPIs and latest activity.

In 2011, India’s potentially vast IT market should consolidate its strong performance in 2010 thanks to an improving economy and consumer sentiment. Computer shipments were up by around 30% in 2010 compared with 2009, and although growth is expected to moderate in 2011 due to base effects, it should remain comfortably in double-digits.

Less than 3% of people in India own a computer (about one-fifth of the level in China), meaning particular potential in the lower end product range. However, realisation of this long-term growth potential depends on fundamental drivers such as raising India’s low computer penetration, rising incomes, falling computer prices and the government’s ambitions to connect the vast rural areas to the outside world.

However, the key threat to the Indian IT sector is the global economic slowdown and rising costs that will impact on consumer and business sentiment.

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Business Monitor International Launches Report on China’s Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Industry

Business Monitor International (BMI) has announced its latest report, China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report.

The healthcare and pharmaceutical analysis includes Business Monitor International’s five and ten year forecast for drugs and healthcare expenditure, imports and exports, and focuses on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments. The forecasts are based on in depth analysis into industry trends and new developments.

The China Analysis report is designed to provide industry professionals, market investors and corporate and financial services analysts with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare industry. The report is vital to these groups so that they can benchmark BMI’s independent five and ten year pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts on Chine, target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector and asses the activities, strategy and market position of pharmaceutical competitors, partners and clients.

Following the outcome of Q1 2011, BMI now predicts China will become the most attractive pharmaceutical market in Asia Pacific within the next five years. China has the world´s most attractive emerging pharmaceutical market. Driven by a booming economy and underpinned by political stability, demand for medicines, both generic and patented, will continue to increase. However – the key downside risk is further pricing pressures, which could intensify in the event of an economic slowdown.

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Business Monitor International Releases Japan Earthquake Implications Report

Business Monitor International has released a new special report which covers the probable economic and market implications of the Japan earthquake to the world economy.

Since the devastating Tohoku earthquake in Japan on March 11 and its terrible aftermath, there has been much speculation on the scale and scope of a potential nuclear disaster and the implications the disaster will have on the world financial markets. The special report seeks to provide some insight into some of the main economic repercussions ranging from the disruption to Japanese economic growth and markets through to the impact on commodity prices and the infrastructure sector.

Currently at least 6,000 people are known to have died and many thousands are still missing, with local authorities reporting that the final toll could exceed 10,000, which would be greater than the 6,400 killed in the Kobe (Hanshin) quake of 1995. However, while the human toll is disastrous, the infrastructure analysis provides the relatively positive news, if there is any, that Japan is better placed than many other disaster prone countries to respond to the crisis and Japan’s social cohesion should help it withstand a disaster of this magnitude better than many other countries. The participation of China and South Korea in the rescue efforts could also boost the previously strained relations between Japan and its neighbours.

Figures in the report show that there will be severe disruption to economic activity and that recession risks have returned to the fore, although at this stage the full impact is difficult to estimate. This comes at a time when it looked like export growth would boost overall GDP in 2011 following a 1.2% annualised contraction in Q410. While Tohoku is not a major economic centre, it still accounts for 8% of GDP and has numerous factories. Meanwhile, power outages across large parts of Japan, including Greater Tokyo, and supply chain concerns mean that major exporting companies such as Sony and Toyota have halted some operations indefinitely. Assuming that net exports place a sizeable drag on headline growth as exports cool and capital imports surge (as following the Hanshin earthquake in 1995), Japan may continue to suffer negative sequential growth in H111.

Other insights from the Japan analysis indicate that the Japanese government will need to spend heavily to rebuild the damage in the Tohoku region, around the city of Sendai, which will generate economic activity, but the costs will worsen Japan’s already dire fiscal deficit and debt burdens, and could put gross government debt through the JPY1,000trn level this year (an estimated 204% of GDP). Additionally, while markets will remain volatile in the short term, indications are that the authorities’ response to the crisis means that the medium-term view of a weaker yen (to JPY85.00/US$ in the first instance) remains on track, and the longer-term view of an eventual fiscal crisis is reinforced.

Other major areas looked at by the report include the risks for oil & gas prices, shipping, agriculture, automotive manufacture and the base metals industry, as well as important regional economic outlooks.

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Business Monitor International Launches Special Report On MENA Crisis

Business Monitor International has revealed a special report recently launched on its website that looks at the key risks to global recovery and stability following the crisis in the Middle East and North Africa.

The report states that the wave of popular protests that have swept across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since January 2011 constitutes the biggest shake-up to the region for at least a generation, and its impact will be felt for many years to come. The unrest also poses the biggest risk to the global economic recovery this year, not least because of its effects on the oil and gas industry with the price of oil continuing to increase.

Although rising inflation has fuelled discontent, the protests are being driven by more fundamental issues, such as a lack of democracy, high unemployment and poor opportunities for social advancement.

Business Monitor International deemed Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, and Yemen to be most at risk of further unrest, although the company emphasises that virtually no state will be completely immune to public protests.

Egypt will remain in a delicate transition to democracy, and if the people’s hopes are dashed, further protests could erupt. In Bahrain, the growing demands of the Shi’a majority could transform the polity, with major implications for Saudi Arabia, which fears unrest among its own Shi’a minority in the oil-rich Eastern Province.

Libya’s descent into civil war represents the most immediate risk to the region and Europe. The country’s oil supplies are of key significance to the EU, but southern European countries also fear a massive influx of refugees from the country. In addition, chaos and lawlessness in Libya could allow Islamist extremists to establish a greater presence in the country.

More broadly, the crisis in MENA has served notice to authoritarian regimes around the world that they are not immune from popular uprisings. Governments in Venezuela, Belarus, several African countries, Central Asia, North Korea, Myanmar, and even China will become ever more vigilant to the possibility of public unrest.

As far as global financial markets are concerned, the combination of supply-side risks to oil and massive political uncertainty in a strategically important region is bad news for risk trades. Business Monitor International’s global macro team has modelled a ‘worst-case scenario’ in which oil prices spike to US$200/bbl. The company’s special report also reveals that Asia’s economic growth is particularly vulnerable to high oil prices, because most countries in the region import more than 90% of their oil needs.

European economies are also likely to be hit by high oil prices the company reveals, and policymakers in the continent will also be wary of the security risks of Libya’s descent into chaos. However, one relative beneficiary is likely to be Russia. Although there are several Russian oil firms with stakes in the Libyan oil market, high oil prices are generally positive for the Russian economy, provided that any price surge does not tip the global economy back into recession.

Via EPR Network
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