In its economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2010, Saxo Bank recognises growing optimism in recent months due to a strong earnings season but the state of the US economy still overshadows these results. Saxo Bank, the trading and investment specialist, expects final sales to remain weak in the second half of 2010 and into 2011 and the unemployment rate to continue to hover just below 10% in the fourth quarter.

Commenting on the outlook, David Karsbøl, Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist said: “With the S&P 500 currently trading around the same level as it did at the beginning of the year, and with the lack of investments due to a weak housing market, the ongoing trouble in Southern Europe, and most developed economies, Saxo Bank fears that a cold front will stall, bringing more challenges and adversity going into 2011.”

Equities rely on the notion that the impressive earnings growth rates, recorded in earlier quarters, can be sustained. According to the Bank, the trouble is that earnings growth currently comes almost exclusively from one source: margin expansion, and while productivity gains can only take income to a certain level, sales growth must soon step up to the challenge.

The Bank predicts that spending at state and local levels remains a downward trend as policymakers scramble to balance their budgets. Despite the fact that the recession is generally perceived to have ended in the summer of 2009, it is still very much a reality at state and local levels.

“Double dip fears re-emerged over the summer as the deceleration in the US economy progressed as predicted in our 2010 Yearly Outlook. We expect growth to come to a complete halt in the fourth quarter of 2010 as consumption deleverages, the manufacturing sector will slow down, and investments will be negatively affected by the weak housing market. Unfortunately, the risk of a double dip, within the next few quarters, is substantial in our view.” Karsbøl added.

The Quarterly Outlook Q4 2010 focuses on the following areas: general market comment, macros forecast, FX outlook, equity outlook, commodity outlook and policy rates.

Via EPR Network
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