Saxo Bank’s annual ‘Outrageous Claims’ now has its own page on tradingfloor.com, the home for news from the Denmark-based online bank’s strategy team.
Among the 10 ‘Outrageous Claims’ for 2010 are predictions of the devaluation of the CNY, the emergence of a third political party in the US, a massive fall in the price of sugar, a positive US trade balance for the first time since the 1975 oil crisis and the US Social Security Trust Fund going bust.
The online futures trade and investment specialist’s ten claims are an annual thought exercise to predict rare but high impact ‘black swan’ events that are beyond the realm of normal market expectations. The exercise aims to challenge market conceptions. Compiled as part of the bank’s 2010 Outlook, the claims this year paint a picture of a more positive year ahead but with a few tremors along the way.
David Karsboel, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, commented: “We believe that 2010 will be a year of reflation, but structural headwinds lie ahead of us and could turn 2010 into a rollercoaster ride.
“One of the most likely structural headwinds will be a shift in investor focus towards slowing GDP and timing issues regarding the path of FED tightening. This will bring risk aversion back into markets.
“Whilst our annual ‘Outrageous Claims’ should be seen as the black swans of the market rather than outright predictions, we do believe that the odds of these events happening are somewhat higher than what is currently priced into the market,” David Karsboel concluded.
Via EPR Network
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